My first impression of Tennessee quarterback Jonathan Crompton was extremely positive. Now, I'm starting to have second thoughts.

That has nothing to do with Crompton. It has everything to do with my first impression of other UT quarterbacks.

With the exception of Peyton Manning, I've overrated every one of them since Heath Shuler claimed the position in the fall of 1992. Erik Ainge, who was taken in the fifth round of the NFL draft Sunday, is merely the latest example of my lofty predictions that fell short. The only difference: He still has a chance to prove my first impression right.

I'm not optimistic. How could I be with my track record?

Take Shuler, for example. On first glance, he looked strong and athletic enough to make the NFL even if he couldn't throw.

A couple of years later, my initial impression hardly seemed off base. Shuler finished second in the Heisman Trophy balloting and was the third player taken in the 1994 NFL draft.

Now, he's regarded as one of the biggest draft busts in NFL history.

The quarterback evaluator in me cited mitigating circumstances. Shuler had the misfortune of being drafted by the downtrodden Washington Redskins, then traded to the more downtrodden New Orleans Saints, whose offense was borderline lethal for a quarterback. Shuler limped out of New Orleans with a severe foot injury, which he reinjured in a brief stint with the Oakland Raiders.

Tee Martin, who succeeded Manning, didn't fit the NFL prototype. But his strong arm, athleticism and playmaking ability - all of which were crucial to UT winning a national championship in 1998 - made me think he could make it in the NFL if placed in the right system. After being drafted in the fifth round by the Pittsburgh Steelers, he retired after four undistinguished seasons with the Oakland Raiders.

At least, he was drafted.

When I saw Casey Clausen win UT's starting quarterback job early in his freshman season, I immediately projected him as a first-round NFL draft pick. Oops.

Clausen was good enough to start four years at UT but not good enough to be drafted. What's wrong with that picture?

The quarterback evaluator in me remains mystified.

Ainge made an even better first impression than Clausen. I remember watching him throw in UT's indoor practice facility in the summer before his freshman season. He released the ball so quickly and with such force, his new receivers sometimes didn't get their hands up in time.

Future first-round pick, no doubt about it. A year later, the future first-round pick struggled to hold the starting job.

Ainge bounced back from a disastrous sophomore season and progressed in two seasons under offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe. But he never looked as athletic as he did as a freshman before his shoulder injury against Notre Dame.

Ainge and Clausen might have learned significantly more about the nuances of their position in four years at UT, but you could argue that their physical skills actually diminished. No one questioned Clausen's arm strength as a freshman, as they did after his senior season. And no one compared freshman Ainge to a statue when he rolled left to evade a fourth-quarter Florida pass rush and threw so accurately on the move.

Crompton flashed no such potential as a freshman. He didn't even play.

A year later, as a redshirt freshman, he got his chance against LSU when Ainge was injured. All he did was throw two touchdown passes against one of the best defenses in the country. He demonstrated both toughness and poise in a 28-24 loss.

Never mind that he looked overmatched - as was the entire UT team - in a 31-14 loss to Arkansas the following week. Or that he wasn't overly impressive in limited playing time last season as a backup. My first impression tells me Crompton has pro potential.

My track record says, "Not so fast."

Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knoxnews.com.

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